SEB Analysts Predict 2026 as Year of Transition from Virtual to Physical AI
Analysts at SEB believe that *productivity gains* driven by artificial intelligence will truly flourish when AI finds its place within tangible products.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technology, *2025* marked a pivotal shift. The costs associated with implementing AI systems dropped dramatically, opening the door for a wider range of industries to harness its power. However, SEB analysts argue that the true revolution won’t be fueled solely by virtual AI. Instead, we are on the brink of significant growth once AI seamlessly integrates into physical products like *autonomous vehicles*, drones, and humanoid robots.
Revolutionizing Industries
Recent experiences reveal that banks are already enjoying notable returns on their investments in AI. Yet, measuring these returns remains a complex task. While some businesses focus on engagement rates for AI tools, others emphasize the potential for increased efficiency.
“*Virtual AI* has certainly enhanced office processes, but its impact on overall productivity is still somewhat restrained,” explains Thomas Thygesen, SEB’s head of equity strategy. “The real game-changer will arise when AI transitions from software applications to physical hardware.”
Visible Indicators of Change
Evidence of this transformation is becoming increasingly apparent. Companies like Waymo and Apollo are expanding their operations in the autonomous vehicle sector, while numerous Chinese manufacturers have rolled out *thousands of humanoid robots* just last year. Nevertheless, these numbers are only a fraction of the global demand, suggesting it will take time for the broader economic impact to unfold.
The stock market is also reflecting this shift toward a more integrated approach. Since late 2025, businesses focused on developing software models have experienced stagnant or even negative returns, whereas companies producing *semiconductors and chip-making equipment* have thrived, driven by robust demand for AI hardware.
Long-Term Vision and Challenges
A recent survey conducted at the SEB Nordic Seminar further corroborates these findings. Many companies view AI as a transformative journey rather than an overnight success. While certain banks, like HSBC, report nearing significant returns from their AI investments, they face challenges ahead as the transition to *agentic commerce* becomes increasingly intricate and expensive.
Moreover, banks must navigate the tricky waters of balancing quick innovation with the *regulatory* imperatives that ensure ethical AI practices are in place. “We’re optimistic about productivity growth accelerating in the coming years,” notes Mads Bossen, an equity strategist at SEB. “However, the infrastructure necessary for AI-enabled products must be developed before we see widespread macroeconomic benefits.”
Future Outlook
Looking ahead to *2030*, AI tools integrated into everyday products—from robots to autonomous mining equipment—are anticipated to become commonplace. Throughout history, periods of rapid productivity acceleration have been closely linked with robust equity markets, hinting at promising opportunities for *investors* focused on the hardware aspect of the AI value chain.
As we stand at the crossroads of innovation, the potential is immense. Embracing this transformation may very well set the stage for a future defined by groundbreaking advancements. Join us in this exciting journey—your opportunity to make an impact begins now!
